This dissertation project assesses the possibility of Colombia becoming an annex I country before 2020. This assessment assumes that the country will eventually have to define the year during which it will be required to start reducing its GHG emissions and by what amount. This project aims to answer the following questions; in which year Colombia should assume a GHG reductions cap? And how much GHG emissions should Colombia reduce? These two questions were answered by first projecting the growth of future emissions of the country based on economic parameters, population growth and energy consumption and secondly by calculating the cost of undertaking the GHG reductions to meet the target. Three separate analyses were performed in order to answer those questions; first a comparative analysis of the country’s conditions when the protocol was signed, second the concept of the Environmental Kunznets Curve was used and confronted with the available Colombian data and third it was necessary to project when Colombia will be responsible for percent of the world’s emission. The results showed that at least until the year 2020 Colombia will not be responsible for a share bigger than one percent of the world emissions; neither will it reach the peak of the EKC and lastly Colombia will not become a higher middle income country anytime before the year 2020. The main conclusion obtained in this dissertation is that Colombia should not undertake any GHG reduction targets under the continuation of the Kyoto protocol before the year 2020.
Agregar etiquetas para Determining a GHG emission cap for Colombia under a continuation of the Kyoto protocol = Determinación de un nivel máximo de emisiones de GEI para Colombia bajo una continuación del protocolo de Kioto